Kaufmann is but one of many fearing the rise and rise of the poor, the coloured and non-western inhabitants of the world - especially the Muslims.
These doom-mongers range from academics to environmentalists, to religious fundamentalists and even bankers from the Bundesbank.
1. Two highly regarded environmentalist-neoMalthusians, Paul and Anne Ehrlich, gave an urgency to the campaign of saving the planet from people in their 1968 best seller "The Population Bomb". In their 1990 "The Population Explosion" they claimed - there are differences "......... but the low status of women in Islamic societies caused high birth rates and infant mortality rates." Although they conceded that it's "not Islam itself that causes high growth rates but poverty and inferior status of women."
2. Of course, there are plenty of secular-liberal and Christian extremists hammering at the fecundity of Muslims. But this one comes from the Anglican Establishment itself - from the Primate of Nigeria. (A Primate, not primate, is the most important priest in a country especially in the Church of England)
|Archbishop Nicholas Okoh - Primate of Nigeria|
this would be a dire scenario for Christians in Africa.
Although liberals (both secular and Christian) are embarrassed by such statements they are quick to point out that this concern has been swept under the carpet for too long and the taboo needed to be broken. But like the old fear of the "Yellow Peril" (the Chinese) this is no taboo. The fear of Islam is inherent in Judaeo-Christian culture - and today, that includes not just the whites but also the non-whites who are non-Muslims.
|NY Times August 14, 1910. Copyright The New York Times.|
(From http://blogs.aljazeera.net.blog/ Imran Garda)
3. In January 2010 Miloslav Vlk, a Vatican Cardinal (previously Archbishop of Prague from 1991) expressed a worry that Christians are allowing Europe to be Islamised - that immigration and the Muslims' high birth rates will take over "the vacant space created as Europeans empty the Christian content of their lives".
And this bogey of multiplying Muslim rabbits has also been analysed by rational, intelligent academics from pukka Western universities.
4. Eric Kaufmann (mentioned above) a Canadian reader in politics at Birkbeck College, London noted "...the fecundity of fundamentalists from the Amish, Israel's ultra-Orthodox and the Mormons." So far, so good. But the most potent ingredient in his crucible of fecundity were the Muslims - a fecundity aggravated by their increased migration to the West. He estimated that "Switzerland could be 25% Muslim by 2100 - Austria 36%." These are alarmist figures - boosting the ridiculous belief of a "Eurabia" - AND breeding more Breviks in Europe!
Although his thesis also took into account the rising birth rate of the non-Muslims, and the fact that the increasing number of immigrants in Europe also includes Christians (60% of London's churchgoers, for example, are non-whites) - Kaufmann falls short of his liberal credentials as he believes that " in the future the rift will be between increasing numbers of Muslims and the rest of everybody else."
5. American academic Jack Goldstone, in his "The New Population Bomb" (2010), puts a different slant on this population 'bomb'. More crucial than the number of inhabitants in the world are the composition and distribution of this bomb and the movement of people across the globe. He reckons this movement or 'forces of supply and demand' of labour " will act strongly on the Muslim world where many economically weak countries will continue to experience dramatic population growth. ....... By 2009, (Bangla Desh, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria ) ... the most populous Muslim-majority countries .... have a combined population of 886 million ........ expected to increase by 475 million between now and 2050 ... during which time the six most populous developed (meaning white mainly) countries are projected to gain only 44 million. Of the 48 fastest growing countries today - those with annual population growth of two percent or more - 28 are majority Muslim or have Muslim minorities of 33 percent or more."
In this conception of the West having an ageing population and a low reproductive rate and the Muslim world enjoying the opposite the threatening scenario will be no different from the one which the Archbishop, or Kaufman, or a dozen other doom-mongers are promoting.
6. In August 2010, Thilo Sarrazin, a prominent board member of Germany's Bundesbank, published "Germany is Digging its Own Grave" where he expressed his fear that the immigrants are not integrating into German society, especially the Muslims. They are blamed for 'dumbing down' society and he especially points out that at the rate Muslim women are reproducing, Germans may become 'strangers in their own country.'
There are however three facts that all these theorists have decided to play down :
Firstly, Muslim birthrates are falling worldwide. According to the UN"s World Population Prospects, only two Arab countries, Yemen and the Palestinian territories, have high fertility rates. In Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Lebanon, fertility rates have fallen to near-European levels, less than 2.2. When the Shah of Iran was driven out in 1979, the rate of reproduction was 6.5. By 2000 it dropped to 2.2 and today it's 1.7.
The UN estimated that for the years 2010-2015, the fertility rate of Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim
state will fall to 2.02, Bangla Desh to 2.2 and Pakistan will just reach replacement level at 2.1.
For more details read : http://www.worldcrunch.com/myth-soaring-muslim-fertility-rates/4990
Secondly, Christianity is still the world's largest religion with one third stating Christianity as their religion. The only change is that while the majority of Christians are still found in Europe and the Americas, their share has fallen from 93% in 1910 to 63% today. Sub-Saharan Africa ( where Archbishop Nicholas Okoh is situated), which holds one quarter of the world's Christians, has seen the largest increase. In the Asia-Pacific region there were 17 million Christians in 1910; in 2010 that number grew to 285 million. More astounding, Indonesia accounts for more Christians than all 20 countries in the Middle east and North Africa combined. These shifts in the global Christian population have been the result of zealous and successful missionary work as well as the high birth rate of the local Christian communities.
So who's the Bogey?
Thirdly, while Muslims are accused of migrating in droves to populate the West, the overwhelming proportion of international migrants are Christians.
SAY NO MORE.